CPE President: As Kentucky's high school classes shrink, colleges must prove their value and enroll a larger share

September 29, 2026

Kentucky's colleges and universities must increase the value of a postsecondary credential and make that value more visible to students and employers, Council on Postsecondary Education (CPE) President Aaron Thompson told trustees, regents and campus leaders Tuesday. He warned that a shrinking pool of high school graduates means the state will need a larger share of traditional-age students to enroll in college, as well as more adult learners.

Thompson delivered his annual State of Higher Education address, “Increasing Higher Education's Value Proposition for Students and Employers,” at the 2026 Kentucky Postsecondary Education Trusteeship Conference at the Owensboro Convention Center. CPE Vice Chair Elaine Walker introduced the address.

Thompson opened by highlighting Kentucky's progress. Kentucky’s improvement in enrollment, retention, and graduation rates over the past five years rank among the highest in the country The share of working-age Kentuckians with a postsecondary credential has climbed from 45% in 2013 to 55% today, equal to the national average and within striking distance of the 60% goal.

Thompson noted that House Bill 1, which created CPE in 1997, set what many considered an unattainable goal: reaching the national average in postsecondary attainment by 2020. “Standing here in 2026, I am proud to say that together, we have fulfilled the original promise of that legislation,” he said.

Those gains pay off for the state. A Kentuckian with a bachelor's degree earns about $1.2 million more over a career than a high school graduate. Every dollar the state invests in higher education returns $4.50 in tax revenue and $17 in local consumer spending.

Yet only 38% of U.S. adults express strong confidence in higher education, Thompson said, and employers report that many new graduates need additional training. He called increasing higher education's value proposition “an urgent priority, perhaps more than ever before.”

Thompson encouraged postsecondary institutions to take action now to remain competitive in a higher education landscape facing enrollment declines, regulatory and funding uncertainty, and changlng demands and expectations from students and employers.

Ensuring credentials have value. Thompson urged boards to build on Kentucky's Graduate Profile and its 10 Essential Skills. He encouraged them to expand stackable credentials and badges, portfolios, work-based learning and employer partnerships, so graduates can show employers what they know and can do.

Expanding access amid a shrinking pipeline. Thompson cautioned that preliminary fall numbers suggest enrollment growth may be slowing, in part because there are fewer students in the pipeline, especially in rural areas. CPE projects that the number of Kentucky public high school graduates will fall from 47,254 in 2024 to about 42,300 by 2040, a decline of roughly 10.5%. Kentucky’s in-state college-going rate needs to climb from its current level of 47.5% to 53% by 2040 just to hold enrollment steady.

Thompson pointed to strategies already underway. Kentucky is on track to meet its goal of having half of each graduating class complete a dual credit course by 2030, since dual credit students enroll in college at far higher rates than their peers. This year, the state is launching proactive admissions, which will notify high school students by letter when they meet an institution's admission requirements. CPE is also expanding Futuriti.org, Kentucky's one-stop college and career resource, which may eventually offer employers and institutions insights on student interests and skills and serve as a digital wallet for transcripts, badges and résumés. Thompson added that reaching adults will be just as important, pointing to KCTCS's new “Comeback to Complete” initiative for the more than half a million Kentuckians who started a credential but didn't finish.

Helping students finish faster. Thompson credited proactive advising and data-driven interventions for Kentucky's completion gains. He called for more support for students struggling with basic needs and mental health. He also challenged the system to make transfer from two-year to four-year institutions more seamless.

Redesigning institutions for the future. Thompson asked boards to consider accelerated bachelor's degrees, more work-embedded learning, and a sharper focus on what makes their institutions distinctive, including shifting resources away from lower-priority areas. He also urged cost savings through shared purchasing and streamlined operations, and preparing students to be “AI-capable, not AI-dependent.”

“Now is the time to make decisions that will increase the value proposition for students and employers,” Thompson said. “A willingness to take some risks – to not do business as you've always done – will increase your ability to withstand economic uncertainty.”

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